Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Belgium
  • Spain
  • Italy
  • United Kingdom
  • North Macedonia
  • France
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Montenegro
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Iceland
  • Czechia
  • Armenia
  • Switzerland

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $567,532$ on 2020-11-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $16,219$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,531.4}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10,531.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $551,313$ on 2020-11-26

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,617,355$ on 2020-11-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $44,374$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,230.0}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(31,230.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,422,605$ on 2020-11-26

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,509,875$ on 2020-11-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $52,850$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,756.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 49.5)}}\) (asimptote \(36,756.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $795,845$ on 2020-11-26

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,578,429$ on 2020-11-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $57,128$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,267.4}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 48.3)}}\) (asimptote \(43,267.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,517,847$ on 2020-11-26

North Macedonia⮸

Population $2,083,374$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $58,608$ on 2020-11-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,630$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,969.9}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 444.0)}}\) (asimptote \(15,969.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,914$ on 2020-11-26

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,235,537$ on 2020-11-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $51,041$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,802.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(32,802.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,020,682$ on 2020-11-26

Bosnia and Herzegovina⮸

Population $3,280,819$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,252$ on 2020-11-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,480$ on 2020-11-26

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,992$ on 2020-11-26

Montenegro⮸

Population $628,066$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $33,316$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{167,454.1}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 314.8)}}\) (asimptote \(167,454.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $469$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,422.9}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 281.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,422.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,126$ on 2020-11-26

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 87%
Czechia recovered 62%
Armenia recovered 37%
Switzerland recovered 35%
Slovakia recovered 23%
Austria recovered 13%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,323$ on 2020-11-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11.8}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 26.4)}}\) (asimptote \(11.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $166$ on 2020-11-26

Czechia⮸

Population $10,708,981$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $511,520$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{596,379.5}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 238.7)}}\) (asimptote \(596,379.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,779$ on 2020-11-26

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $71,867$ on 2020-11-26

Armenia⮸

Population $2,963,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $130,870$ on 2020-11-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,068$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,707.3}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 250.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,707.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25,747$ on 2020-11-26

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $313,978$ on 2020-11-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,509$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,198.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,198.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $90,569$ on 2020-11-26